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鲍尔森的7000亿一揽子计划是正确的,这个计划的宣布本应成为美国此次危机的结束点。而现在如果没有另外的救援计划获得通过,影响将不仅仅是房价暴跌,而是对整个信用市场的重新估值。而基于市场机制总是矫枉过正的历史表现,这一估值会在未来的一段时间内远低于实际价值。而由于美国的金融危机不能顺利解决,中国的情况将会变得更加堪忧。在本来出口就不甚顺畅的今天,美国消费市场的萎缩更是雪上加霜。而在房地产市场价格进入回归周期的现在,扩大内需这一命题本身就存疑。恐怕现在更应该作为对比课题研究的不是80年代末的日本,而是90年代初的阿根廷。
而美国的民意调查也很有意思,对于外国人而言,Obama的外交言论更显得亲善,却得不到美国大众的喜欢。McCain的国内言论更基于切实的数据和眼下的现实,却让Obama的空口许诺占了上风。而一直抱着精英意识的各位,更是在古怪的众议院投票之后一篇争议,却没看到大堆的民意调查显示大众对此却是高兴的。
神奇的或许不是精英意识和主流的格格不入,而是相反。如果抛开网络上的过激言论而回归生活中,会发现更多的人抱着一种更加平和的对待问题心态。卖山芋大叔喜欢希拉里是因为她是个女人,不会那么凶。而我们选希拉里是因为他政治上更成熟。这并没有什么大的不同。同样,在日喀则开旅馆的老板不会在乎ZD,只希望别影响了他们的生意。中国的主流意识或许更关注自身的利益,这好多了。
而主流言论的造势者似乎自身更偏向于精英言论。而意见领袖的意见是否代表本人看法实在是值得商榷。我无意指责背后是否有控制言论的动机,但是这样的行为却不能收到良好的效果。几乎所有的意见领袖都忽略了沉默的大多数。而恰恰是大多数中庸的人而不是少量偏激的人来进行投票。从这一点上看,超女实在不算是民主启蒙,因为这种付费投票实际上是以极低的门槛将沉默的大部分挡在了外面,所以也就无外乎会出现过于偏激的人选。
主流民意并不是根据意见领袖以大众无知作为基础而推论的产物。而这种臆造主流民意而做错事在历史上不是一两次了。
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