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社会发展的平衡和不被特殊事件影响的可能性取决于个体的发展。简而言之,个体发展程度越高,文明将会越不稳定,最终会由于少数的事件导致整个文明群体的灭绝。
这一论断的得出基于这几点观察。一、随着文明发展,个体能获取的能力将会越来越大。二、在整个群体中,个体的活动是近似随机的。从第二点出发,我们知道个体的活动函数f分布有随机性保证,但是群体活动F将是个体运动f的和,是稳定的。设定每个个体活动函数f受到他的邻近个体活动函数f_{k}的影响,且 | f-f_{k} | 小于一个阈值c。由于第一点的观察,阈值c不断放大,最后导致每个f均受到整个群体的显著影响。由于每次计算受到时间间隙的影响,即使最终的F是稳定的,在每个时间间隙点仍然是不稳定的,若假设个体活动函数f小于某阈值z时表示死亡且不可逆转,那么在每个f均能影响整个群体时,群体灭绝性事件的发生是不可避免的。 |
这一论述为未来文明的发展说明了几种可能性。利用行星系尺度的间隔,可以减小个体影响力的作用,即使一部分世界会由于少数事件而灭绝,从概率上说,少部分世界仍然可以存活发展下去。减少个体数量,在这种情况下,群体发展会更加不稳定,但是个体行为更加容易预测,一个随机模型将不再适用,整个预测模型的失效可能会产生新的可能性。一种减少个体数量的极端办法是使得整个群体具有能力,而不是个体。实用地说,通过制度的设定保证个体无法产生对群体具有显著影响的能力。
现阶段的危险性在于,通过各种辅助方式,个体的能力已经显著提高。以前,操作船舶需要几十个人的配合。而现在只需要一个人的控制和计算机辅助系统就能驾驶飞机。个体具有对整个文明产生决定性影响的能力在将来的不久就会出现。非对称化的恐怖袭击只是这一论断的一种表现而已。
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