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昨天晚上,看完之后,走在街上,突然的一些想法,现在记下来,可能说得不太清楚。
最近一直在进行真实决策量化方面的研究,基本上将其当作一个黑箱子,找到输入输出后看结果。通过这样的方法,希望能够得到一个稳定的数理模型。
虽然样本量还没有达到能够产生有实践指导意义的结果的程度,但是,也能够反映一些重要的问题。
在我的研究中,如果只考虑一些重要因素,包括利益、亲情、友情、道德压力、法律规定,在这些情况下,人的决策呈现出一种稳定的关系,至少说输入和输出是高度相关的,而且存在一一对应关系。而在引入爱情参量之后,输出就存在了高度随机的扰动。在很多研究情况中,这种扰动甚至导致了输入与输出完全无关。通俗地说,就是对于同一个人的模型,输入完全相同,而输出近乎随机。
作为一种研究,决定先抛开这一参量进行研究,这样就能很快建立一个社会人模型,以区别于经济学上的理性人模型,进行社会学上的人性研究。
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