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September 27th, 2015

离上次预测未来2016已经过去了四年。本打算每两年一次预测,每次预测四年之后的情况。因盖茨曾说过,我们总是高估两年之后的科技发展,而低估十年的科技发展。而十年之前,将奔腾四芯片的运算能力放到手掌大小的运算设备上几乎是不可能的事情。哪怕是八年之前,当我们要订制有当时高端台式机处理能力的一体化电视也是困难重重。

回顾过去四年的预测

虽然四年前的预测现在看来相当精准。但是经济政治稳定的大前提在各国政府的量化宽松政策主导下得以保持,否则这样的预测难言准确。回顾四年前的预测,互联网接入、3D电视悲观市场前景、电视剧点播、计算机性能、辅助驾驶、自拍技术均和现实没有太大出入。然而,对于无线电源的普及、Pad和笔记本融合的趋势、商用超音速客机投产、失业率以及人工智能的发展预测都出现了较大失误,没有预测到无人机的发展。总结起来,一些是过于乐观,而另一些是知识的储备不够。

未来四年经济社会总体概况的预测

对于接下去四年的预测很难以经济社会总体稳定作为前提了。就全球而言,经济增长将会放缓。美国反而会因为向全球输出货币,成为受影响最小的国家之一。四年中,在欧洲,西班牙、希腊等地中海国家的情况很难得到改善。虽然政治情况的发展总比预测的缓慢,一个或多个国家退出欧元区的前景将会变得非常确定。在这样困难重重的国际环境中,日本的情况却在数次有计划的税率提升后有些许的改善。然而,最难以预测的情况是中国。在未来四年,中国可能会出现如下情况中的任意一种:

1). 在货币和经济政策调控下经济成功硬着陆,中国的GDP增长会降到每年4.5%到5.5%。总体上,中国的财政将会更加平衡,作为全球制造工厂,中国所整合的系统生产效率将是其他即使有低成本劳动力的经济体难以企及的。在这种情况下,中国理所应当地成为了人均年GDP产值在九千到一万美金左右的新兴发达国家。

2). 在未来的两年中,中国的GDP增长将降到致命的4.5%或者更低。经济和货币政策在大量的货币对外流失和自2008年以来的资本失控中效果乏乏。社会动乱比想象中的更加容易。地方政府将会疲于应付各种社会暴动。而中央政府可能会和反对党领导人展开对话。而下一步的发展会变得无法预测。

于我而言,选择1作为中国未来四年的背景将是能够做出有意义预测的唯一方法。如果选择2更接近未来四年的现实的话,以下的所有预测将会和现实完全脱钩。

对于印度,我没有任何的系统知识。这也使得我无法预测印度对于全球科技和政治经济的影响。对于俄罗斯和中东产油国,油价将会徘徊在每桶40到100美金。因为油价会在未来四年大幅波动,而俄罗斯的经济也将会受到拖累。

预测的基础

如果想对于任何预测的成功有任何把握的话,我们只有参考过去。在过去的100年中,最重要的事件是人类对于指数级增长的理解。在各种书籍文献中,我们对于指数级增长有着近乎狂热的崇拜。然而,如果只是将指数增长的图表画出来,而不了解其后的科技规律的话,我们也许会遭遇到物理学的根本极限而不自知(但是,过于聪明的理解物理学的极限也会让我们过早放弃对于指数级增长的发掘)。

过去100年人类的指数级增长成为可能只是因为这两个关键字:标准化和大规模生产的效率。现代集这两者为一体的就是iPhone了。如果没有iPhone的生产规模,现代的高分辨率电容触控显示屏将会花费数千美金每平方英寸。但是现在,人人都可以仅花十几美金获得这样的一块屏幕。

标准化和大规模生产,在未来的四年中,将会以各种形式,继续展现其惊人的有效性。

预测

智能硬件的概念提出已经有十多年了。究竟智能硬件应该是什么样的呢?

  • 智能硬件上,它原有的功能应该变得极其傻瓜化。轻松、一次完成、不用动脑的操作;

  • 除去基本的功能以外,智能硬件能够用有限的方法解决一些之前使用中的“痛点”(一个好的例子是可以自动下载云端内容的路由,而能自动预订食物的冰箱就是一个坏案例);

  • 在未来四年,家中的智能硬件不大可能是一种全新的东西。

接下来的四年将是非PC的时代。大多数家庭将不会拥有桌面电脑,虽然在大部分家庭中,所有器件的总计算能力将超过10Tflops。交互式界面也将发生变化。人们将主要通过触控和语音与设备交互。图形化界面将会被对话式界面改造或替代。

虽然有地方冲突和不稳定因素,总体上来说,交通的成本效率更高了。地面交通而言,自动驾驶或者驾驶辅助技术成为新汽车的标配,但离强制标准仍然差很远。曾经Abu Dhabi的PRT虽然不会在中东成功,但类似的交通工具将在一些城市商业化。长距离的交通工具革新在美国仍然没有摆脱实验阶段。不仅如此,一些长距离的不间断航班由于成本上升而被取消。商业交通将会更慢,也更贵(虽然成本效率更高)。

在经济萎缩的时候,娱乐业反而会迎来一次增长。人们仍然会花大部分的时间在电视上,但是选择不订阅任何有线电视的人群将会大大增加。在美国,15到35岁的有线电视观众将以年均10%到20%的速度加速减少。现在收视率最高的电视(首映时五百万左右的观众)在四年之后仍然会保持大致这样的收视率。但是大部分收视率在两百到三百万左右的剧集将会降到一百万以下。在未来四年,某一家在线播放服务商会和一家主要的体育赛事签订在美国独家直播的协议。总体上,从电视和移动终端上,人们每天将会花超过三个小时观看在线视频。

共享经济的未来或许不会是像大家所想的那样。共享经济的核心是将重资产从公司的资产负债表中剔除,从而提高公司的盈利能力。在经济增长期,轻资产使得公司能够快速发展,将盈利能力不佳的项目轻松砍掉。但是在经济萎缩的时候,这些公司将会尝试在资产价格划算的时候收购一些资产。但是最流行的方式或许不是直接的购买。这些公司将会提供给共享经济工作者们各种融资项目让他们能够有资本去购买资产,将资产的贬值风险留给这些共享经济工作者。

移动消息服务将会集中在少数的几家公司手中。这些公司每家将会拥有至少三亿的日活跃用户,每天的消息发送将会超过二十亿条。现在的移动消息服务商中不能达到这些数字的公司将会死掉。全球主要的移动消息服务商只会剩下三到四家或更少。所有的这些移动消息服务商都会提供语音和视频通话服务。这将进一步使得传统电信服务商的语音通信服务变得无关紧要。在美国,至少有一家大型的在线互联网服务商将会进入互联网通信服务市场。互联网接入速度将会进一步提高。全球而言,家庭有线互联网服务接入平均速度将在100Mbps左右。全球移动互联网接入平均速度将在10Mbps左右。在中南非洲,互联网接入速度将会到500Kbps。换句话说,只要有钱支付,在全球除了南极洲以外的任何陆地上,你都能够通过手机进行稳定的视频通话。

医疗仪器也会变得更加便宜。低价的计算能力和机器学习在信号处理中的广泛应用使得必须的医疗设备变得更加便宜耐用。它们能够在地球上最偏远的地方正常工作。这一变化将会对全人类的平均寿命产生深远的影响。

在其他方面,虚拟现实设备将会出现在更多的家庭中。它们仍然在寻找一个杀手级的应用。即使这样,在2019年底,全球将会每年售出三千万台左右的虚拟现实设备。工业机器人将会在更多的工厂取代人类,而这对于中国而言是一个利好。航天技术的私有化仍在继续,私人企业将会成功完成至少一次载人航天任务。

就这样,2020年还没有到人类历史上最坏的时代呢!

It has been 4 years since the last prediction for the year 2016. My original plan is to draft a prediction every 2 years, and scope for the next 4 years. Gates once said, we always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. A decade ago, having computing devices as small as a palm with Pentium 4 computational power was unimaginable. Even 8 years ago, it was a difficult fate for us to build an all-in-one TV with high-end PC capability.

Review the Prediction of the Past 4 Years

The prediction of the past 4 years has been accurate. The biggest promise of economic stability has been kept with all the unusual fiscal policies, otherwise such predictions can hardly be any believable if at all. Reviewing the prediction I made 4 years ago, Internet connection speed, the unfortunate market share of 3D TV, Television on demand, computational power, driving assistance (self-driving), and photography technology have matched the reality pretty well. However, for wireless power source, Pads and ultrabook merging, commercial supersonic flight, unemployment rate, and artificial intelligence has been off quite a bit. No predictions on unmanned aerial vehicles. Overall, some of these predictions are too optimistic, and some of these are simply ignorant.

The Economic / Social Outlook for the Next 4 Years

However, it is harder to predict the next 4 years on the same social / economic stability promise. Globally, the economy growth slowdown will be a given. On the contrary, the United States will be least affected due to the dominance of Dollar in Global economy. In Europe, it is unlikely the economic situation in Spain, Greece and other Mediterranean countries will get any better. As slow as politics go, the possibility of one or several countries exiting euro-zone becomes ever more real. However, under the gloomy environment, Japan's outlook improved marginally after several scheduled tax hikes. The tricky bits, is China. China would likely to take either two paths:

1). Its GDP will land at around 4.5% to 5.5% yoy growth in the next 4 years. This is after a controlled turbulence landing, with some finesse mix of fiscal / monetary stimulus. Overall, the fiscal sheet is more balanced, and as the world manufacturer, China integrates more efficiency in its system, and it is harder to compete on efficiency front even with much lower labor costs. This is a China as a newly-minted developed nation, seating comfortably among the rest of developed nations with GDP per capita between $9,000 and $10,000.

2). Its GDP will land at 4.5% or even below in the next 2 years and will be considered as fatal. Fiscal and monetary tools seem ineffective due to large amounts of capital outflow, as well as loosen control over capital in general after 2008. The social uprising turns out to be much easier than expected. The regional government would be hard to contain the unrest, and the central government would likely to have several rounds of negotiations with opposition leaders, it becomes impossible to predict what would happen afterwards.

For the sake of making any progress on this prediction, I will pick the China option 1 as the background for the next 4 years. If option 2 turns out to be closer to the reality, it nullifies all the predictions I am going to make below.

India, for the lack of systematic knowledge in that area, it is hard to predict the impact of India to the global technology and economy outlook. For Russian and Middle-East oil-producing countries, the assumption will be that oil per barrel will float around $40 to $100, and Russian's economy will struggle nevertheless due to the more volatility in the oil price.

The Basis of Any Predictions

The success of any prediction, if at all, looks at the past patterns. For the past 100 years or so, it has been the capturing and interpretation of exponential growth. It has been emphasized in enormous books and talks about the fascination of exponential growth. However,by applying exponential growth, without the underlying understanding of technological principles, we risk of hitting some fundamental laws of the physics, and makes no progress at all (and on the other hand, a premature prejudice of "understanding" the fundamental limits of physics, can be fatal too).

The exponential growth is made possible only with two key terms: standardization and the economy of the scale. The modern marvel of this kind, is the iPhone. Without the scale of the iPhone, modern high resolution screen with capacitive touch will cost thousands dollars to manufacture per square inch. But now, everyone gets a modern high resolution touchscreen with a few bucks.

These two key words, will manifest themselves in many forms, and will continue to play wonders in the next 4 years.

The Prediction

The smart hardware has been around for more than 10 years. But what makes sense as a "smart hardware"?

  • It makes the basic functionalities we assumed about that hardware a no-brainer. Smooth, one touch, perfect and care-free integration;

  • It extends beyond the basic functionalities, but operates under well-defined principles (good example, a router that caches cloud content and make the access instantaneous, bad example, a refrigerator that orders food for you);

  • It is unlikely to be something completely new.

Then, there is the un-PC era. In the next 4 years, homes rarely own any desktop computers, even though aggregated processing power in a single-family house can easily reach more than 10Tflops. There is a change of the interface too. People now interact with these devices by either touching or talk. The graphical interfaces now have a meaningful conversational re-touch.

Despite the potential conflicts and regional instability, the transportation will be more cost effective. In terms of the land transportation, self-driving or smarter driving assistant will be standard add-on in newly shipped vehicles. However, it is far from becoming the mandatory standard. The Abu Dhabi PRT was a failure in the Middle-East, but similar transportation services will run commercially in some cities. The next generation of long distance land-transportation is still in experimental phase in the United States. Not only that, some of the longest commercial flights are cancelled due to the cost. Commercial transportation is going to be more expensive, and slower.

Entertainment industry gets a big boost in time of recession. People still spend disproportionate time on big television, The movement of "cutting-the-cord" will happen much faster than expected. The United States 15 to 35 year viewership on cable will drop at the rate of 10% to 20% year over year and accelerating. Today's top TV show numbers (5m viewer at the premiere) will keep steady. But shows with 2m to 3m premiere viewership will see a drop to 1m or less. In the United States, online streaming players will ink deals with major sports and have exclusive rights to stream online. People will spend more than 3 hours a day on streaming services, either on television or on their mobile devices.

Shared economy is not going the way you would expect. At its core, shared economy moves the assets out of the company such as AirBnb or Uber's balance sheet and bumped up its profitability. At boom times, asset-light companies can move fast and quickly get rid of less profitable businesses painlessly. At down times, these companies will try to own more assets as the asset prices are all cheap. However, the most popular way for them to do so will not be out-right purchase. Instead, they will launch finance programs to help its share economy workers to own these assets, and leave the risk of asset depreciation to them.

The mobile messaging service will consolidate. Respectable players on messaging service will reach 300m daily active users, and have at least 2b message sent per day. Any player cannot reach that hallmark will be dead. There will be only 3 to 4 major players in that space, if not less. All the messaging services will have the ability to make audio and video calls, which will continue to marginalize the phone call service business for traditional phone service providers. In the United States at least, more than one online-based business will enter ISP business. The speed of the Internet will continue to improve. Home Internet speed globally will average to 100Mbps. Global mobile Internet speed will average to 10Mbps. Specifically, the mobile Internet service in Middle / South Africa will reach average 500Kbps. In the other word, as long as you can pay, with your cellphone, you can have semi-stable Internet connection and will be able to do video calls anywhere in the world except Antarctic.

Cost-effectiveness is penetrating medical equipments. With lower cost of processing power and general application of machine learning techniques in signal processing, popular and essential medical equipments will reach a point that are cheap and versatile enough to even be delivered to the most remote area on Earth. The profound impact will be a global lift in life expectancy.

Virtual reality gears will have tractions in many more homes. They are still struggling to find its killer applications. But on average, shipped units per year will be around 30m globally at the end of 2019. Industrial robots will replace more human labor, which is a good thing for China. Privatization of space technology continues. One or more private companies will accomplish at least one low-orbit manned mission.

Thus, it is not the worst time of humanity yet for the year of 2020.

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August 16th, 2015

八月的夏天总是特别漫长。暑假的最后几天,家里百无聊赖,休整得已经不能再好了就等着开学,和同学们扯蛋聊暑假发生的大小事情。暑假的尾巴,八六版的西游记也快结尾了,都开始放西游记续了。

嗯,其实从来也没有过过这样的暑假。大概除了去年的夏天,也总是忙忙忙。忙工作啊,忙实习啊,忙一些上学时候不应该忙的事情。太阳公公晒啊晒,把白天晒得格外长。漫长的白天,又跟着漫长的黑夜。重复的八月,赶着同一个Deadline。结果也都有好有坏。有让大家不满意的地方,也有让自己开心的时候。

九局下半,两人出局。

最早的漫长的八月在上海,出奇地重复一致。每天早上在学校门口吃碗馄饨,然后把主机搬到实验室,开始下载东西,准备资料,写代码。傍晚的时候,把主机再搬回寝室,继续做没做完的事情。

紧接着的八月在军训。就这么就到了大学。每天一样的出勤,请病假,坐在树下和同样请病假的刘同学扯蛋。每次和这些小伙伴聊到音乐啊,历史啊,追忆似水年华啊,就觉得自己很Pedestrian。喂,从小读的应该是茨威格博尔赫斯而不是基业长青啊!

满垒。

09年的八月在湾区租的一个小房间里。一早到Sunnyvale的另一个小房间,中午在Castro吃饭,将近九点的时候回到Mountain View的那个小房间。然后第一次到Charlottesville。

之后的夏天总是在Facebook实习。说是实习,其实也是每天到办公室,写东西,然后八月的某天晚上有Zuck家里的Party。

12年的夏天,一边骗着父母说已经毕业了,一边去Berkeley补没满的5个学分。清晨六点往学校赶,听完教授吹嘘自己在KPMG的光辉事迹之后九点半就往公司赶。就这样墨墨迹迹地就真的从大学毕业了。

两好三坏。

就这样到了下半场,往下看也看不到村上春树。手头还有好多想做完然而一点没动的事。漫长的八月,却没有外星人、未来人和超能力者。如果再长一点、再长一点,把想做的事情都做到,不让任何人失望,这样的重复能不能在第15532次的时候结束呢?

看台上没有观众起立鼓掌,我把帽子反戴,心里默念,老夫子,全垒打,安打安打全垒打,全垒打。

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May 23rd, 2015

我是表现得有多不热爱LA啊!过去的八周,只有三个周末呆在LA,忙着各种Routines就过了。人家一问这个城市怎么样啊,还是噼里啪啦地答不上来。所以,趁着长周末,就,嗯,跑到大岛来了。

不过,我是有多热爱在这样的海边小镇瞎逛。一不小心就在Kona的小镇上溜达了一下午。啊,刚刚才意识到这里土特产应该是咖啡!在Venice工作的时候也算是喜欢在Oceanfront Walk上瞎逛。但最近都是匆匆忙忙走过,连抓杯咖啡的时间也没有。这大概或许是人生走上正轨的写照?那当年在Facebook没事抓个咖啡,找人扯淡聊天喝奶茶的人生或许大概就是在瞎胡闹?或者现在这样假装很忙才是在瞎胡闹,在办公室里面看党报喝茶可能才是正途,谁知道呢。

之前有段时间,对自己想住在哪这件事一直很纠结。嗯,纽约,那个,是吧。旧金山湾区,现在回去也有了一层陌生感。LA总是在慌乱地工作,夏天好不容易到了,Hollywood Bowl有演出了,却还一次都没去。呆在上海,也花了两三年时间,才听懂了沪语,觉得是自己的城市。北京一直没搞明白,但是在北京的时候,亲切感却很强。之前总感觉年轻人每个地方都要住那么两三年看看,就这样晃荡了十几年,也眼看着不年轻啦。

于是想了想,既然每个地方都不是家,还不如抓紧时间多跑些地方,至少瞅瞅别人家是什么样子,说不定哪天觉得好就搬到Tangier了呢。

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May 3rd, 2015

Birthdays are often joyless for me. I've yet to find this as an excuse to celebrate for. But the clock is ticking, and every time, it kicks me hard on the back this day of the year. It is always a thing for me to accomplish something, to set a goal, and work towards it. But looking back, I've done nothing tangible, not even to mention worthy causes. When I die, I die.

硅谷老是说,让世界变得更美好。再年轻一点的时候,也觉得热血沸腾。But now, I only want to touch lives. So be it one, or two, or many. 但是成长这么大,除了父母,也没有人会在乎我是活着还是死去了。过去三四年,却也没有做成什么事情。Life is not about a house, a car or a pack of children. What I want, is to make beautiful objects and put these into people's hands.

还是是很贪心啊!什么都想要,又怎么可能什么都能得到。

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March 16th, 2015

上周四晚上,和同事们去特Sketchy的一Neighborhood吃饭。洗手间在楼上,酒足饭饱之后去,发现小便池上面一排「THIS PLACE IS HAUNTED」的警告。匆忙跑下来,接到了姥姥过世的噩耗。不到30个小时之后,就回到了家乡,老房子的楼下。

当周遭都回到了十几年前的模样,看世界的眼睛才会变得光怪陆离。桌上的小泥人在夜里站起来自己活动脚肢。七月十五深夜的马路边,会有穿着白裙子的长头发坐着哭泣。从古墓里跑出来的僵尸还在被解放军追捕。半夜河边的桥上,三五个少年在无声地嬉戏打闹。而这一切,在脚边的公鸡打鸣破晓之后都会不见啦。

围着火炉,守着夜深,有一句没一句的答应着,望着那边睡得很端庄的公鸡。二十多年前的时候,姥爷也是在差不多的时候过去。前段时间姥姥病重之后,尽力也要守着一口气,等着那个人,在那天,从桥上回来,告诉她,不要再顾盼着闺蜜聊天啦,时间不早啦,我们该去看电影啦。于是跟个小女孩一样,一颠一颠就高高兴兴地一起去了。

十几年前的时候,在老房子里,深夜睡不着觉,就望着卧室天花板上映着从急诊楼里的灯光。从右手边的楼梯上二楼,转角的女厕所里,有一个长舌头的女鬼等着吓唬你。中学第三教学楼的四楼,最左边的教室里,黑板边上有一串密密小小的梵文,念着是大悲咒。十天前,放学路上左边的建筑工地里的大坑已经填平了,里面埋了两尊小石狮子。这个小镇在这样的夜里,又会有什么样古怪的事情呢?

而十几年之后的我,却嘴上说着憎恨生活,其实在乎的也不过是Evan不开心了,买不起488 Spyder,喜欢的姑娘不爱搭理我。再也没有时间去想着,凌晨的三四点钟,住在四楼的十三岁小女孩背着父母从防火楼梯上爬下来,在这个古怪的小镇夜里,会有些什么奇特的遭遇。

一直说着想这样三四年之后,抽半年时间到处去看看。但也不是想看看企鹅拍拍照吧!站着和企鹅爸爸聊聊天,听他抱怨企鹅妈妈就只会每天晚上去海里跳舞,自己一个企鹅拉扯大孩子,但还是止不住地迷恋孩子他妈的艰辛。坐着轮船回太平洋,等着海豚妈妈领进来一群小海豚姑娘,选第五号喝个酒,唱个歌助兴,放松放松。

原来就坐在老房子里,我还是多喜欢听大家讲那些他方这方的故事啊。

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February 9th, 2015

05年2月份的时候,写下了第一篇BLOG。十年,当时的伤心事和不得意,也终究完全不记得了,还是一如既往地憎恨生活。

十七八岁的时候就离开家到上海上学,人生成长的关键时期,以至于连审美都被培养得只对上海姑娘充满好感,无法自已。

翻看十年前的BLOG,却总是显得过分高尚不物质。当时批判着大家买Porsche和Ferrari,现在还是觉得橙色的488 GTB好不错,应该努力赚钱给有些人买呢。十年前是表面不物质,但雄心勃勃地想赚好多好多钱,买好大好大的房子。十年后却表面各种物质,实际想的,不过是能自由地到处游学,做一些让所有人都受益的好事情。十年后,当年认识的同伴们有的已经实现了我十年前的梦想,可是现在的我看着他们却只能摇摇头,觉得那也不是自己想要的。

读完了秦腔之后,想学着贾平凹给家乡立传。见过别人之后,就想邯郸学步。被大人的名誉地位派头吓得一怔一怔的,也不懂得透过表面去看Content。还是很喜欢各种玩具,只是现在居然都可以买了不心疼。边读过去的日记就边脸红心跳,觉得自己以前真的是又装又傻啊。为什么又不删掉呢?

嗯,就是要这么羞耻地把BLOG啊,大众点评啊,豆瓣评论啊,CSDN的帖子啊,那么些不够好的过去的自己一丝不挂地给大家。瞧,这么善于解剖自己,剖开给你看,这是心,这是肺,这是盘丝大仙在心里留下的一滴泪。

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January 15th, 2015

上周和友人聊天的时候,他莫名就提到了少年情怀。快到三十,还一事无成的时候,谈起少年情怀总是有点Pretentious啊。最近的日子过得都太物质,而在十七八岁的时候,这个物质的世界反而不是这么具象。十七八岁的少年,不止有一个物质的世界。虽然对于大部分的少年吧,那个非物质的世界往往就在网吧的屏幕里。但至少在那里,可以打怪升级,耀武扬威。

而我那个时候,是如此内向,只会躲在书里的世界,见到书里水一样的姑娘心脏就扑通扑通乱跳。过去了这些年,看过那么多书,走过那么多路。在台上巧舌如簧,在台下小心导航。结果见到喜欢的姑娘,还是跟十六岁时候的少年一样,拙嘴笨舌,脸红口燥。幸好心里还装着改变世界的小愿望。而那时候的少年啊,就已经穿着中二的校服,跟着师傅除妖降魔,拯救苍生去了。十年过去,苍生还没救到,只是吃了百家饭,穿了百家衣。饱一顿饥一顿的时候,才知道光吃果子会营养不良。醒一分梦一分的时候,才醒悟师傅也喜欢着被菩萨收走的那只小玉兔。到了凌云渡,望见雷音寺,就要功德圆满,又动了凡心。

然后归家路上,看尽了沧海桑田,猛一转过头去,却望着那个姑娘说,红尘真美啊。

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January 5th, 2015

一开始抒情,陈升这个男人就在我脑子里开始「依然是,不懂爱也不懂情」。本来说年前的时候写一篇像话的小散文,讲讲现在的乐观情绪。结果一玩起来就没了神,一周什么都没干,就像做梦一样。一年用这样的方式结束总是觉得有点邋遢,跑马拉松的时候,最后一英里就算再累,也要冲过去啊。

去年刚开始的时候,想做的事情才做了一半,安排的事情也都八字没有一撇。却没有任何征兆地,就这样到了年底。

2014年呢:

跑完了一趟50Mi又跑完了一趟250K。

认识了更多有趣的朋友。

读完了四五本书。

从旧金山搬到了洛杉矶。

这样一条一条数下来,却发现和自己期待的差了好多。但是到了这个年纪,也知道好多事情并不是能在一年的时间段完成的。人性的伟大之处,不就在于能够牺牲短期的欢愉,而争取长期的进步吗。

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November 28th, 2014

只有一个月就到年底了,一方面蠢蠢地想着年底出去玩,另一方面什么都没做也很慌张!本来说感恩节的时候好好在家工作,结果眨眼功夫,就到了San Diego呆两天。一年时间什么都没干成,还坐在Grand Hyatt楼顶干嘛,早点回去干活才是正事。

故事到最后,都是我想要离开,你却停不下来。

喂,少年,新生活刚开始的时候要勇敢面对啊!

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October 20th, 2014

有的时候,两年什么事情也没发生。转眼间,跑第一次马拉松就已经过去了一年,在Mountain View的夏天训练已经是那个夏天而不是这个夏天。但转眼间,很多事情又发生在两周之间,就这样为三十岁收尾了吗?

有时候也会吓一跳午夜冷汗醒来,怕泡沫破灭之后自己一无所有。有时候也会固执地觉得,最后会是Kentucky的某个老太太的养老金来给我们买单。上周末在GSB,就是看看更不靠谱的人怎么为自己找台阶的,也要一边摇头,一边学习学习呢。

无论环境怎么变,还是得慢慢积累,和以前一样好好工作,才会继续有好运呢。能在新的小公寓里望着Bay Bridge,想着还有点小激动。

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